Design of an added planning system for the production of metallic containers in a manufacturing company in the city of Chimbote

Abstract

Objective.Design an aggregate planning system for the production of metal containers.

Materials and methods.Historical forecasts were evaluated to determine their degree of accuracy with respect to actual sales. The relationship of the actual sales as a function of time was evaluated by calculating the determination coefficient for linear and non-linear regressions. We evaluated prognostics with moving average and exponential smoothing. Using the forecast tracking signal, including the historical ones, we evaluated the statistical technique that was most successful in predicting the behavior of demand. Aggregateplans were developed with strategies of persecution, leveling, subcontracting and use of overtime. The Excel Solver was used for the economic optimization of the proposed aggregate plans.

Results.The coefficients of determination failed to exceed 32%. With respect to tracking signals, it was determined that historical forecasts only had a 27% approximation to actual sales while the proposed forecasts were between 50% and 75%. The aggregate plans showed costs between S/. 1,246.415 and S/. 1,469.758With the use of the solver, these costs were optimized to reach an amount of S/. 1,148.700

Conclusion.The system of aggregate planning allows to reduce errors in the decision making as well as to optimize the use of resources.