Ordinal regression model for forecasting depression in Peruvian older adults
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18050/revucvhacer.v14n2a4Keywords:
Ordinal regression, Depression, PHQ-9Abstract
Depression in older adults represents a public health issue with an impact on their well-being and quality of life. In
Peru, population aging has increased the prevalence of depressive symptoms, requiring statistical tools for proper
identification and prediction. However, the models used do not always consider appropriate approaches for categorical
data, which may affect their accuracy. This study evaluated the adequacy of the ordinal regression model to predict depression in Peruvian older adults. An observational, cross-sectional, and retrospective study was conducted using
data from the “Mental Health” section of ENDES-INEI. The dependent variable was the level of depression (normal,
moderate, and severe) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), while the independent variables were age and sex. Seventy percent of a sample of 4,935 older adults was randomly selected for model estimation, and the remaining 30% was used for validation. Ordinal regression with a Logit link function was applied, addressing the
stages of identification, estimation, and validation.The results showed that nearly fifty percent experienced symptoms of sadness and hopelessness, while approximately forty percent reported a loss of interest in their activities. Other
symptoms, such as sleep and appetite disturbances, were less frequent. In conclusion, the ordinal regression model without interaction between factors proved adequate, confirming the significance of sex and age in predicting
depression.
Downloads
References
Abebe, T., Haile, D., Feleke, B.E., & Abebe, H. (2023). Malnutrition and associated factors among older adults in rural Ethiopia: A community-based cross-sectional study. Nutrition, 112, 112085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nut.2023.112085
AJA Inc. (2024). Physical and lifestyle risk factors for depressive symptom trajectories in community-dwelling older adults. Aging
Journal. Age and Ageing, 53(1), 1-2. https://doi. org/10.1093/ageing/afae003
AlFaris, N., Alkehayez, N., AlMusharaf, S., Alnafisah, R., AlSawyan, M., AlMugbel, M. S. & Wani, K. (2022). Association of vitamin D deficiency with depressive symptoms in older adults: A cross sectional study. Nutrients, 14(8), 1548. https://doi. org/10.3390/nu14081548
Australian Psychological Society. (2023). Older adults’ preferences, attitudes, and motivations to understand and change their individual risk for developing dementia via screening in primary care settings. Australian Journal of Psychology, 59(2), 142-153. https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/publications/older-adults-attitudes-andmotivations-towards-learning-about-per
Cárdenas, L. & Suárez, Z. (2015), Adulto Mayor y síntomas depresivos: Características sociodemográficas y la depresión en el adulto mayor a partir de la Encuesta Nacional de demografía y Salud, 2010. [Trabajo de grado, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana].
https://repository. javeriana.edu.co/bitstream/handle/10554/16712/CardenasMosqueraLuzKarina2015.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Cambridge University Press. (2021). Adverse childhood experiences, genetic liability, and their association with depression and inflammation in older adults. Psychological Medicine, 53(4), 1426-1436. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ psychological-medicine/article/abs/interactiveassociation-of-adverse-childhood-experiencesand-polygenic-susceptibility-with-depressivesymptoms-and-chronic-inflammation-inolder-adults-a-prospective-cohort-study/F93283B1F70DDADF9190C0646FC23653
ENDES (2018). Encuesta demográfica y de salud familiar. https://datosabiertos.gob.pe/dataset/encuesta-demogr%C3%A1fica-y-de-saludfamiliar-endes-2018-instituto-nacional-deestad%C3%ADstica-e
Escobedo, J. & Zavala, E. (2016). Estudio sobre la fuerza de asociación entre manifestaciones depresivas y estado nutricional en adultos
mayores institucionalizados en la Congregación de las Hermanitas de los Ancianos Desamparados del distrito de Breña y el Callao [Tesis de Licenciatura, Universidad católica Sedes Sapientiae]. https://repositorio.ucss.edu.pe/bitstream/handle/20.500.14095/182/Escobedo_Zavala_tesis_bachiller_2016.pdf?sequence=6&isAllowed=y
García, A. (2019). Preocupante situación de la salud mental: Más de seis millones de peruanos necesitan atención. Perú21. https://peru21.pe/lima/preocupante-situacion-salud-mental-seismillones-peruanos-necesitan-atencion-480592noticia/
Gil, M. (2019). Validación del PHQ-9 para el diagnóstico de depresión en gestantes atendidas en establecimientos del primer nivel de
atención en salud en el Perú [Tesis de maestría, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Repositorio UPCH]. https://repositorio.upch.edu.pe/bitstream/handle/20.500.12866/7184/Validacion_Gi lZacarias_Marcela.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Hernández, R., Fernandez, C., & Baptista, M. P. (2014). Metodología de la investigación (6ª ed.). McGraw-Hill Interamericana Editores.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (2020). En el Perú existen más de cuatro millones de adultos mayores. https://m.inei.gob.pe/prensa/noticias/en-el-peru-existen-mas-decuatro-millones-de-adultos-mayores-12356/
Korean Society of Nursing Science. (2022). The influence of social capital on depression in older adults living in rural areas. Journal of Nursing Science, 52(2), 144-156. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35575108/
Lama-Valdivia, J., y Rodríguez-Del Pozo, R. (2020). Comentarios sobre el artículo: Depresión del adulto mayor peruano y variables
sociodemográficas asociadas: Análisis de ENDES 2017. Revista de La Facultad de Medicina Humana, 20(1). http://www.scielo.org.pe/pdf/rfmh/v20n1/2308-0531-rfmh-20-01-166.pdf
Minchón, Medina, C., Timaná Palacios, D., Minchón Benites, M., &e Minchón Benites, F. (2020). Logros de aprendizaje en educación primaria-Región La Libertad. Revista de Investigación Estadística, 2(1), 1-11. https://revistas.unitru.edu.pe/index.php/REDIES/article/view/2815
Ofori, M. A., Asiedu, S. N., Adjei, S., Amakye Boateng, K., & Oppong, B. (2024). Risk factors associated with high blood pressure and
depression among the working population of Ghana: Evidence from the SAGE survey. Wiley, 1, 1-8. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1155/2024/5261760
Organización Mundial de la Salud. (2024). Depression. World Health Organization. Organización Mundial de la Salud World Health
Organization. https://www.who.int/mental_health/management/depression/en/
Stucchi, S. (2017). ¿Realmente existe una “epidemia de depresión”? Revista de Neuropsiquiatría, 80(4), 261-XX. http://www.scielo.org.pe/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-85972017000400005
Trujillo, H., Gálvez, M., y Gálvez, M. (2017). Depresión en el adulto mayor: un instrumento ideal para su diagnóstico. Nure Investigación, 14(89), 1-10. https://www.nureinvestigacion.es/OJS/index.php/nure/article/view/1136?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Vega, R. (2018). Depresión y Riesgo Cardiovascular en Adultos Mayores: Una Comparación entre Áreas Urbanas y Rurales [Tesis de maestría, Universidad San Francisco de Quito. Universidad San Francisco de Quito]. http://repositorio.usfq.edu.ec/bitstream/23000/7008/1/135373.pdf
Wang, J., Kwan, P., Zhang, G., Shen, M., Piccenna, L., O’Brien, T.J., & Zhang, L. al. (2024). Disability and associated risk factors among older adults in Shenzhen, China: A cross-sectional study. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, 10, e43612. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.085210068420&doi=10.3389%2ffmed.2024.1469052&partnerID=40&md5=93b710c5a50babb8fb26252d2752f8ba
Zhao, Y., Li, S., Wang, L., Zhang, J., & Chen, W. (2021). The association between geriatric nutritional risk index and frailty in hospitalized older patients: A cross-sectional study. Clinical Interventions in Aging, 16, 1381–1392. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85109396437&doi=10.2147%2fCIA.S313827&partnerID=40&md5=3a49ad93e3c3599c6ed054d9d7d01af9
Zhang, Yu, Bai, Wu, Geng, Zhang, Liu, Meng, Gao, Li, & Kou. (2024). Sleep quality, depression, and frailty in community-dwelling older adults. National Library of Medicine, 5(12). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38645453
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Lilian Roxana Paredes López
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
