Análisis de regresión logística: variables predictivas de la permanencia en universidades públicas peruanas

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18050/psiquemag.v13i2.3099

Keywords:

Permanencia, Universidad, motivación intrínseca, compromiso institucional, perspectiva de tiempo futuro

Abstract

University education is key to Peru's economic and social development. The permanence of students in public universities is fundamental to guarantee their education and to optimize the state investment in their education. Objective: To analyze the variables that predict the intention of permanence in Peruvian public university students, highlighting sociodemographic and psychological factors that influence student retention. Methodology: A quantitative approach was used through a logistic regression analysis with a sample of 611 students from Peruvian public universities. Variables such as intrinsic motivation, future time perspective, institutional commitment and gender were considered. Results: The results show that intrinsic motivation, institutional commitment and future time perspective are key factors in student retention. Females are less likely to continue their studies. Conclusions: It is necessary for universities to implement strategies to strengthen motivation, commitment and support for students, especially women.

References

Álvarez, M., & Álvarez, S. (2015). La tutoría en la universidad: Propuestas para la mejora de la calidad. Educación XXI, 18(2), 305-328. https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/2170/217036214010.pdf

Astin, A. W. (1984). Student involvement: A developmental theory for higher education. Journal of College Student Development, 40(5), 518-529. https://www.middlesex.mass.edu/ace/downloads/astininv.pdf

Bean, J. P and B. S. Metzner (1985). A conceptual model non-traditional undergraduate student attrition. Review of Educational Research. 55 (4) 485-540. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1170245

Cabrera, A. F., Nora, A., & Castañeda, M. B. (1993). College persistence: Structural equations modeling test of an integrated model of student retention. Journal of Higher Education, 64(2), 123-139. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2960026

Castillo, D. O. V., Loredo, M. A. F., & Pachari-Vera, E. (2020). Factors of student desertion: An exploratory study from Peru. Interciencia, 45(11), 754-760. https://www.redalyc.org/journal/339/33965363005/

Davidson, W., Beck, H. P., & Milligan, M. (2009). The college persistence questionnaire: Development and validation of an instrument that predicts student attrition. Journal of College Student Development, 50(4), 373–390. https://doi.org/10.1353/csd.0.0079

Davidson, W. B., Beck, H. P., & Grisaffe, D. B. (2015). Increasing the institutional commitment of college students: Enhanced measurement and test of a nomological model. Journal of College Student Retention: Research, Theory and Practice, 17, 162–185. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2015-33681-002

Deci, E. L., & Ryan, R. M. (1985). Intrinsic motivation and self-determination in human behavior. Springer. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2271-7

Del Savio, A. A., Galantini, K., & Pachas, A. (2022). Exploring the relationship between mental health-related problems and undergraduate student dropout: A case study within a civil engineering program. Heliyon, 8(4), e07739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09504

Field, A. (2018). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics (5th ed.). Sage Publications.

Figallo, F., González, M. T., & Diestra, V. (2020). Educación superior en el contexto de la pandemia por el COVID-19. ESAL, 8(Julio-diciembre), 20-28. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. https://rcientificas.uninorte.edu.co/index.php/esal/article/view/13404

Herrera Paredes, D. I., Arakaki, M., Dammert, M., & Lira Luttges, B. (2023). Orientación futura, bienestar y rendimiento en universitarios de un programa de tutoría durante la pandemia COVID-19. Revista Peruana De Investigación Educativa, 14(17). https://doi.org/10.34236/rpie.v14i17.353.

Herrera, D., & Matos, L. (2016, 24-29 de julio). Future orientation, aspirations and social variables related to academic success and well-being in university students. En T. Shirai (Chair), Time perspective in developmental context [Simposio]. 31st International Congress of Psychology, Yokohama, Japan. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ijop.12308/full

Hosmer, D. W., & Lemeshow, S. (2013). Applied logistic regression (3rd ed.). Wiley.

Millones-Liza, D. Y., & García-Salirrosas, E. E. (2022). Dropout of students from a private university institution and their intention to return in COVID-19 times: An analysis for decision making. Cuadernos de Administración, 38(69), 137-152. https://www.redalyc.org/journal/205/20574634002/

Ministerio de Educación. (2021). Tasa de deserción universitaria se redujo 11.5%. Lima: MINEDU. https://www.gob.pe/institucion/minedu/noticias/552273-tasa-de-desercion-en-educacion-universitaria-se-redujo-a-11-5

Park, I.-J., Han, K., & Ryu, K. (2021). Development and validation of a career future time perspective scale. Journal of Career Development, 48(5), 701–714. https://doi-org.ezproxybib.pucp.edu.pe/10.1177/0894845319887810

Pascarella, E. T., & Terenzini, P. T. (1980). Predicting freshman persistence and voluntary dropout decisions from a theoretical model. Journal of Higher Education, 51(1), 60-75. https://www.sciepub.com/reference/44262

Pallant, J. (2016) SPSS Survival Manual?: A Step by Step Guide to Data Analysis Using SPSS Program. 6th Edition, McGraw-Hill Ediucation

Ryan, R. M., & Deci, E. L. (2000). Self-determination theory and the facilitation of intrinsic motivation, social development, and well-being. American Psychologist, 55(1), 68-78. https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/0003-066X.55.1.68

Seginer, R. (2009). Future orientation: Developmental and ecological perspectives. Springer Science & Business Media.

Spady, W. (1970). ropouts from higher education: n interdisciplinary review and synthesis. Interchange. 19 (1) 109-121. https://www.sciepub.com/reference/55639

Shell, D. F., & Husman, J. (2001). The multivariate dimensionality of personal control and future time perspective beliefs in achievement and self-regulation. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 26(4), 481-506. https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1006/ceps.2000.1073

Superintendencia Nacional de Educación Superior Universitaria (SUNEDU). (2022). III Informe Bienal sobre la Realidad Universitaria en el Perú. SUNEDU.

Tinto, V. (1975). Dropout from higher education: A theoretical synthesis of recent research. Review of Educational Research, 45(1), 89-125. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1170024

Vansteenkiste, M., Lens, W., & Deci, E. L. (2006). Intrinsic versus extrinsic goal contents in self-determination theory: Another look at the quality of academic motivation. Educational Psychologist, 41(1), 19-31. https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1207/s15326985ep4101_4

Vansteenkiste, M., Sierens, E., Soenens, B., Luyckx, K., & Lens, W. (2009). Motivational profiles from a self-determination perspective: The quality of motivation matters. Journal of Educational Psychology, 101(3), 671-688. https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/a0015083

Viera Castillo, D. O., Flores Loredo, M. A., & Pachari-Vera, E. (2020). Factors of student desertion: An exploratory study from Peru. Interciencia, 45(12), 586-591. https://www.interciencia.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/04_6665_Com_Flores-Laredo_v45n12_6.pdf

Yamada, G., Castro, J., & Asmat, R. (2013). Inversión en educación e ingresos laborales. Universidad del Pacífico.

Zimbardo, P. G., & Boyd, J. N. (1999). Putting time in perspective: A valid, reliable individual-differences metric. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1271-1288. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1271

Published

2024-12-20

How to Cite

Jara Sánchez, D. M., & Ferreira Moura Junior, J. (2024). Análisis de regresión logística: variables predictivas de la permanencia en universidades públicas peruanas. PsiqueMag, 13(2), 56–68. https://doi.org/10.18050/psiquemag.v13i2.3099

Issue

Section

Research Articles